Role of Socio-Economic Development in the Formation of Youth Migration Patterns

Objective: This study examines the impact of the socio-economic development of the provinces on the patterns of youth migration in Iran. The issue of youth and specialized forces migration is a result of economic, cultural, social and political social factors where young people live and it will have harmful effects on the processes of economic and social development. While the studies conducted on migration, especially the youth migration in Iran, have emphasized on international migration and the few studies conducted on internal migration have only emphasized on rural-urban migration, this study examines and analyzes youth migration patterns at the provincial level, focusing on individual and provincial factors, emphasizing the level of economic and social development. According to neoclassical economic theories, Raven stein’s pull and push law and dependency theory, the most important reason for youth migration can be economic factors. Unemployment and low income at the origin and the existence of job opportunities and various facilities at the destination are among these reasons. Therefore, the gap in development between regions and the dependence of underdeveloped regions, especially rural regions, on industrial and urban regions causes the youth migration to intensify. According to the theory of relative deprivation, only low income does not cause people to migrate, but individual abilities as well as social factors, including the level of education and the feeling that a person has less income than others, also causes a person's dissatisfaction and attempts to migrate.
Method: This study is based on quantitative research method with secondary analysis technique. According this, the 2015 census data provided by Iran Statistics Center was analyzed. The statistical population includes all people aged 18 to 34 in the country in the 2015 census, of which the information of 492,853 people was extracted from the raw data (two percent) of the 2015 census. At the individual level, the dependent variable, i.e., migration, has been considered and measured as a two-class nominal variable (migrant and non-migrant). Independent variables also include structural factors or the degree of development of provinces with 13 indicators in different economic, social, health and cultural components, and demographic characteristics.
Results: The results have shown that urban youth, young people with university education, young women and young people aged 15-29 have migrated significantly more than rural youth, other educational degrees, men and other age groups. According to the province, Alborz, Yazd and Qom provinces had the highest net positive migration rate. These provinces are at high levels of economic and social development. While the provinces of Lorestan, South Khorasan and Kermanshah - which are in the last ranks in terms of development level - have had the highest rate of net negative migration. Also, the analysis of the results based on the grouping of the development level of the provinces indicates that the most prosperous region has the highest amount of in-migration (positive migration balance), while the most deprived region with the highest negative net migration rate has experienced the largest decrease in the young population due to migration. Considering the volume of migration, which is composed of in-migration and out-migration, the most prosperous region and then the most deprived region have the highest migration flows. The important point in this regard is that only the most prosperous region has a positive migration balance and its population has increased through migration. Other regions have a negative balance and have lost part of their population due to out-migration. The migration patterns observed in this study can be explained by the theories of pull and push, neoclassical economic theory, and Ravenstein's theory. Ravenstein states that the difference in the level of development between regions will cause people to migrate. Differences in development levels between provinces make young people migrate from provinces with lower levels of development to areas with higher levels of development in search of better opportunities and better life. The theory of pull and push states that factors such as job opportunities, standard of living, social services, and living conditions in different regions attract or repel young people. Provinces with high levels of socioeconomic development, such as Alborz, Yazd, and Qom, usually offer better job and life opportunities that attract young people. On the other hand, provinces such as Lorestan, South Khorasan and Kermanshah, which are facing economic and social problems, may intensify the migration of young people. The neoclassical economic theory also explains youth migration based on people's more determined decisions to take advantage of better economic opportunities and interact with the labor market. Provinces with high levels of socio-economic development can provide the best opportunities for young people and thus encourage youth migration to these areas. Therefore, socio-economic development plays an important role in shaping youth migration patterns and affects both the decision to migrate and the destinations chosen by young migrants.
Conclusion: The results underscore the profound influence of socio-economic development on youth migration in Iran. To mitigate youth migration and effectively manage population dynamics, substantial policy interventions are imperative. These measures should encompass bolstering the economy and fostering stable employment opportunities in less developed regions, enhancing human development indicators, and conducting precise and efficacious assessments of local needs and challenges.